Hacker News Predictions from Ask HN posts evaluated using LLMs

Some Statistics

Total predictions: 2804
Overall success rate: 45.77%
16 out of 21 predictions about Linux are wrong
26 out of 49 predictions about Bitcoin are wrong
Nobody predicted anything about Nvidia
Lots of predictions about the fall of Microsoft

Top Categories

  • 1 Technology: 49.03% success rate, 1086 predictions
  • 2 Economy: 56.91% success rate, 246 predictions
  • 3 Health: 53.93% success rate, 140 predictions
  • 4 Politics: 38.02% success rate, 509 predictions
  • 5 Society: 63.51% success rate, 37 predictions
  • 6 Markets: 39.52% success rate, 248 predictions
  • 7 Environment: 53.64% success rate, 55 predictions
  • 8 Energy: 68.42% success rate, 19 predictions
  • 9 Education: 69.44% success rate, 18 predictions
  • 10 Finance: 54.17% success rate, 24 predictions